Prime Ministerial Advantage - Ottawa not phased by US Capital
Despite winning the Atlantic Division with relative ease, the Ottawa Senators appear to be heading into this battle of North American capital cities as slight underdogs, as the vast majority fans and pundits alike are giving the Washington Capitals the slight edge. Unsurprisingly, however, pretty much nobody sees this series ending quickly; the two teams simply couldn't be more closely matched, and this is surely the tastiest of any second round tie in the WCHL.
Ottawa dispatched of Eastern Conference surprise package Tampa Bay in a potential banana-skin first round tilt, scoring eleven goals and conceding only five in a short-lived five game series. Star man Corey Perry contributed with one goal and four points, and the defense was more than happy joining the attack throughout the series, as Hainsey, Spurgeon and Yandle each tallied three points. The key contributor to Ottawa's success vs the Lightning was rookie goaltender Robin Lehner; he picked up where he left off in the regular season (0.929, 1.93), defying his age with a stellar performance under the postseason lights (0.943, 1.11). Lehner is likely to be busier in the second round, but all signs point toward the Gothenburg native being up to the task.
Washington finished the regular season within touching distance of the formidable New York Rangers in the Metropolitan Division, but were handed a tricky first round matchup with the Montreal Canadiens for their efforts. Nonetheless, the deafening atmosphere at the Bell Centre didn't phase Bob Gainey's team; having split the first two games in DC, the Caps proceeded to outscore the Habs 8-3 in their own backyard, before sealing the deal in front of a raucous home crowd. Second-line centre Tyler Ennis led the team with five goals in the series as everything came together offensively for the Caps. Gainey knows that they'll need to carry that explosiveness into the second round if they plan on sending their northerly neighbours packing.
In the regular season, Paul MacLean's well drilled Senators led the WCHL in "goals for" (2.67), PP % (24.93), PK % (85.04), and ranked fourth in "goals against" (2.06). It comes as little surprise that Canada's capital city is set to stage second round postseason hockey this season; some fans are even allowing themselves to dream of Stanley Cup glory under popular GM Noel Moxon. Special teams play at an elite level is paramount in this series, if Lehner and co intend on shutting out the likes of Ribiero, Eberle, Tarasenko, Burns and Havlat.
Having said that, Washington wasn't overly impressive on the offensive front during the regular season, ranking 16th overall in "goals for" (2.38), and a lowly 28th in PP % (18.46). GM Taran Wasson will be hoping that its the offense he saw against Montreal that shows up for this one, and not the disjointed version that relied so heavily on keeping opponents from getting to its own net during the regular season. The Caps were very effective defensively throughout the year, ranking second overall in "shots against" (26.54), and second overall in "goals against" (1.96). Captain Chris Phillips is a key cog in the Capitals formula, and as long as his ever-reliable defensive colleagues show up to play alongside him, Washington has a good shot at nullifying the Sens' attacks.
THE VERDICT: Despite being very impressed by Washington's offensive exploits in the first round, we can't overlook their distinctly average offensive output during the regular season. It is also slightly concerning that Montreal managed to put twelve goals past Mike Smith in last week. To us, Ottawa is a more complete hockey team right now. The top line of Vermette-Michalek-Perry consists of three guys who each racked up over 70 points this season, and as long as they continue to get help from the likes of Saku Koivu, JVR and Mike Zibenajad, the Sens will keep rolling here. Just. OTTAWA IN SEVEN.
PLAYOFF POOL INDICATOR: WASHINGTON 8 - 6 OTTAWA