It all comes down to this...again
For veteran WCHL General Managers, this WCHL Cup final looks awfully familiar. It is also completely expected.
The Calgary Flames and New York Rangers renew acquaintances in the WCHL finals, four years after their last meeting. In Season 11, the Flames took on the Rangers, and in a shocker swept past the New Yorkers to claim the first, and so far only, WCHL Cup by a Canadian team. Calgary now becomes the only Canadian team to reach the WCHL finals twice in league history as well.
The Rangers are hoping the third time is the charm for them. After losing to the Flames, the Rangers returned to the WCHL finals last year only to get beat by the Colorado Avalanche. This year marks the third consecutive year -and fourth time in five years- that a New York based team has reached the finals, yet no New York team has actually ever won the title.
The WCHL traditionally has been home to countless upsets over the years in the post-season, making the Flames and Rangers runs even more remarkable. Both of the top seeded teams in their respective conference have made it to the finals, a rare feat indeed in the WCHL. It almost didn't come to pass after the Flames barely eked out a 4-3 victory in round one over the eighth seeded Columbus Blue Jackets; however both teams have been on a big roll since the first round. Calgary is 9-2 in their last 11 games, with one loss being in overtime, while the Rangers are 9-1 in their last 10 tilts, including four consecutive overtime wins at one point.
This could be a historic series in many ways; all positive for the Flames and all negative for the Rangers should Calgary win. Calgary would become only the third team in WCHL history with multiple cup titles, joining fellow Western Conference teams San Jose Sharks and Colorado Avalanche. It would also mark the only time one team has lost three WCHL finals. With those facts, plus Season 11's finals still fresh in some player's minds, not to mention last year's defeat by the Avalanche, the Rangers have plenty of motivation to run the table on Calgary.
Of interest, this final almost happened last year as well. Calgary did reach the Western Conference final last year and held an early 2-0 series lead over the Avalanche before Colorado stormed back to win four straight games. Suffice to say, expect these two clubs to potentially have multiple WCHL Cup battles in the years to come.
Here's my prediction for the WCHL Cup final:
(1) Calgary Flames vs. (1) New York Rangers- The battle of the best is set to begin, as two of the most consistent and deep teams in the WCHL set to battle in what is arguably the best WCHL Finals on paper.
And while those games aren't played on paper, it's hard to figure out who will have an edge in this series. Going by the regular season, the Rangers have an edge, claiming the Presidents' Trophy with a dominating 126-point season and a 59-15-8 record. While Calgary finished third overall with 118-points and a 58-22-2 record, the Rangers had to battle through an ultra-tough Eastern Conference that featured eight teams with at least 100 points. Calgary meanwhile had their conference all but sown up by the mid-way point.
That's not to belittle the efforts of the Flames, who were very consistent throughout the regular season. While most Western Conference teams faced at least one stumble throughout the season, the Flames had a pair of four game losing streaks but ultimately rolled right through those and remained at the top of the conference pretty much from start to finish. While the Blue Jackets also gave the Flames a challenge, they are clearly back on track after demolishing the Avalanche and knocking off the Los Angeles Kings to reach the finals.
For the Flames, they will need Cam Ward to continue to play like Cam Ward. Shocking many with a mid-season swap of goaltenders with conference rival San Jose, the Flames brought in Western Canada's Cam Ward, and while he was at times shaky in the regular season, Ward has proved his worth in the playoffs, posting a .905 save percentage and a 2.13 goals against average. Also after a so-so regular season, Steven Stamkos has awoken has posted 20 points in 17 games to lead the Flames offense.
As always, the New York Rangers will be led by Henrik Lundqvist in net. The King has been a staple in net for the Rangers and was one of the players General Manager Andrew Don held on to to rebuild the Rangers squad when he took over. Once again not disappointing, Lundqvist has posted a .903 save percentage and a 2.34 goals against average. Johan Franzen meanwhile will be looked on to continue driving the offense, having scored 10 goals and 18 points so far in just 14 games.
While these two teams are built more around a strong defensive game, both clubs have oodles of firepower. Calgary can through Stamkos, Daniel Briere, Mike Richards and Jamie Benn over the boards, only to see Franzen, Anze Kopitar, Stephen Weiss and Thomas Fleischmann hop over on the other side. And if there were two teams which can win a game simply by rotating four strong lines, it would be these two clubs who are both ridiculously deep at virtually every position.
So far this post-season the Rangers have been the best offensive team, scoring 3.64 goals against, while the Flames have been the best defensive team, allowing just 2.18 goals against. Calgary has the best goals for/against ratio, scoring 1.51 goals per every goal they allow. The Rangers are right behind them, sitting second at 1.50. Even on shots the two teams fair pretty evenly, with the Rangers tops in shots for per game while Calgary is tops in shots against per game. The Rangers finished first in shots for/against ratio, taking 1.26 shots for every shot they allowed, with Calgary sitting second at 1.25.
Where there might be a crack in the armour for Calgary could be the special teams. The Rangers boast the second ranked powerplay and best overall penalty kill, as they have been deadly when not playing 5-on-5. Calgary, while not bad, only had the 10th ranked powerplay and fourth ranked penalty kill. That could be balanced out though by the fact Calgary is the third least penalized team this post-season, while the Rangers are the fourth most penalized.
Heading in Calgary's favor is the hitting game, something which has been the Flames bread and butter for years. Calgary ranked second in the post-season in hits per game, while the Rangers rank 11th. If physicality wins the series, Calgary should have the edge.
There should be plenty of close games in this series. On sheer star power, the Flames should have an overall edge, while the Rangers figure to have an edge on overall balance and depth. Both advantages are slight though. Expect a few overtime games, some great two-way play and a series which should go down for the ages. The lone real tipping point could be sheer desire and, nothing against the Flames in this department, but the Rangers have a lot of pent up emotions after twice getting denied at this stage. New York Rangers in six.
ACHL Cup finals:
(3) Peoria Rivermen vs. (4) Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins - Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in five.
