New and old in WCHL Finals

From ugly ducklings to Cup champions? Not if the Rangers have their way

 
 
The WCHL Finals feature one team running for the third straight WCHL title, and another seeking to complete a dramatic run up the standings.

The New York Rangers are just four wins away from doing what no other WCHL team has ever done; win three straight WCHL Cup titles. The Rangers, winners of Season 15 and 16, have prevailed through three tough series this year, needing seven games to oust each of the Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers, then six more to knock off the Pittsburgh Penguins. While they figure to be the favourites for the cup title, going 12-8 in 20 post season games thus far doesn't bring confidence.

Anaheim meanwhile cruised through the first round in five games, and then took six more to defeat the Calgary Flames. Five more games were needed to defeat the upstart Edmonton Oilers, resulting in a 12-4 post-season record thus far.
 


To be fair to the Rangers though, they have had to face much tougher competition. The Capitals were a sixth seeded team, the Flyers fifth and the Penguins were the top seed in the East and second overall in the league. Anaheim meanwhile has been challenged by the eighth seeded St. Louis Blues, seventh seeded Calgary Flames and the fifth seeded Oilers. The three opponents of the Rangers had a combined regular season record of 147-76-23, or a winning percentage of .644 during the regular season. The Ducks three opponents meanwhile had a combined record of 133-92-21, good for a .583 winning percentage.

So maybe things aren't so rosy for the Ducks or so tough for the Rangers?

Stats don't tell the entire story, and really the only stat that matters is who wins the next four games. The Ducks are also the regular season champions, finishing with a record of 60-15-7, slightly better than the fourth overall Rangers, who compiled a 58-21-3 record. Both teams clearly know how to win, and in Anaheim they have been backing up the mouth of their General Manager Terry Danton, who has repeatedly, and successfully, wagered publicly on where his squad would finish the past two seasons.

Now, Danton has issued another call for bets on how well his team will do in the cup finals. While not actually saying his team will win, Danton has stated he'll bet as much as $30 million on his team winning the cup, effectively stating he expects to win it all, a bet he issued before he even knew who won the New York Rangers/Pittsburgh series.

That's a lot of swagger for a team entering a series against the best playoff team in the WCHL the past two seasons, and one which has time and again went on deep playoff runs the past seven seasons now, counting the current playoff in that total.
 


For Anaheim, the strength this post-season has been their offense. Averaging 3.31 goals per game, the Ducks are far and away tops in the playoffs with that number. Only one other team in the league is averaging more than 2.50 goals per game these playoffs, and for the Rangers, they rank 13th this playoff, managing a paltry 1.95 goals per game.

One of the biggest reasons for that difference is the powerplay, where Anaheim is 18.99 per cent successful on, third in these playoffs. The Rangers sit 13th at a pretty weak 7.26 per cent. Even in shots, Anaheim averages 27.06 shots per game, while the Rangers manage a playoff worst 17.80 shots per game.

With offensive numbers that bad, you know the Rangers are as far as they are because of the success of their defense. The Rangers outrank the Ducks in both goals against average and on the penalty kill, but even then, only by a little. The Ducks defense, led by Shea Weber and netminder Tuukka Rask, has been solid, and that's all it needs when you have an offense like this.

The question is, how long will it be that potent? The Rangers have a knack of stymieing offensive teams, the latest being the Penguins. Pittsburgh entered the series averaging 3.18 goals per game in the first two rounds, but the Rangers held them to just seven goals in six games, with one of those games going into a sixth period. Can Anaheim be the team to solve the enigma that is the Rangers defense?
 


They may not have to if the Rangers continue to have a difficulty scoring goals. The three teams the Rangers have played thus far rank in the top six amongst defenses this post-season, but the question is, where those teams that good defensively, or where the Rangers just that bad?

When you have the likes of Anze Kopitar and Johan Franzen, you shouldn't be, but these Rangers don't have the run and gun abilities of other teams, or even past Rangers teams. Salary cap crunches and diminishing skills have reigned in a once lethal Rangers offense. Even on the farm, the team's best assets are on defense and in net, so there are no reinforcements available from the minors.

This series will likely be fairly low scoring, but not low enough to contain the Ducks offense completely. Expect the Rangers to win games 2-1 and 1-0, and expect the Ducks to blow one game wide open someplace. Odds are this series will comedown to finding out just how good Henrik Lundqvist is. New York Rangers in six games.

 


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